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Monday Market Monitor - India (WEEK 10) - Market divergent
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Monday, 09 Mar 2009
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ON the whole Indian Steel Prices remained stable last week as the fall in long products was compensated by rise in flat products. The Indian Long Product Price Index ILPPI dipped by 30 points, whereas the Indian Flat Products Index IFPPI improved by 47 points. The overall price index INDSPI improved by 7 points:

Class27-Feb06-MarChange
ILPPI66926662-30
IFPPI6611665847
IDSPI665466607

ILPPI - Indian Long Product Price Index
IFPPI - Indian Flat Product Price Index
INDSPI - Indian Steel Price Index

Long Products

Category27-Feb06-MarChange
PI - TMT64776431-47
PI - WRC71627160-2
PI - Angle63416288-53
PI - Channel63736338-35
PI - Joist59095848-61



Flat products

Category27-Feb06-MarChange
PI - Narrow Plates6238629355
PI - Wide Plates6669671949
PI - Hot Rolled6448648336
PI - Cold Rolled7178722244
PI - Galvanized68246931107

To know more about these indices please visit
http://steelprices-india.com/spi_services/spi.html

The seeds of revival in Indian domestic steel prices were sown about a month back when the buyers started feeling the pinch of shortage resultant of production pruning by steel majors. Post February 25th 2009, it was commonly perceived that the Indian government’s initiative of reduction in excise duty by 2% would bring relief to steel consumers in general. However on analyzing the pricing pattern during this period, the reality seems to be different especially for products, which are sold in the market on basic prices plus excise duty and VAT. The price of Flat products remained unchanged whereas long prices dipped by 2% across all major locations from 24th February to 25th February showing that the steel majors did not pass over the benefit in Flats but did so in longs. It took less than a week time for this short lived reprieve to vanish when prices remained stable to negative for the most of the products. (Ref STT 04/03/09: Update on HR domestic and import scenario in India).

The scenario looks increasingly ominous with China becoming aggressive in exports making lucrative offers and with the parity being skewed big time imports seems inevitable gravitating the domestic market further.

Input materials remained buoyant

The prices showed resilience, nonetheless there were some pockets of negativity in scrap prices at Mumbai and Kolkata primarily due to bearish international scrap prices having an impact on this port based cities.

Melting scrap
80:20
HMS

LocationChange%
Chennai13278.1%
Kandla7113.7%
Mumbai-500-2.9%
Mandi00.0%
Kolkata-96-0.5%
Kanpur 750.4%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Alang

ProductSizeSizeChange%
ShipsMixedMixed1000.6%
Plate cuttings1”1”-400-2.1%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Pencil ingot

LocationChange%
Mumbai-500-2.2%
Mandi-462-1.9%
Raipur -1066-4.9%
Kanpur -184-0.8%
Kolkata00.0%
Ghaziabad-500-2.0%
Muzzafarnagar-79-0.3%
Ahmedabad-100-0.4%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Pig Iron

LocationChange%
Raipur -1200-6.2%
Kolkata00.0%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Sponge iron

LocationChange%
Raipur -1200-7.7%
Kolkata-385-2.3%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

To know more about these indices please visit
http://steelprices-india.com/spi_services/spi.html

Roll back in Long products prices

Excise duty reduction by 2% had impact on the long product prices as the buyers were coerced to pass on the benefit due to weak market sentiments. Chennai was the lone shinning star with heightened trader’s activity to liquidate stocks and some hustle in construction activity.

TMT
Fe 415
12mm

LocationChange%
Chennai13004.3%
Mumbai-1689-5.5%
Mandi2080.6%
Kolkata-610-1.9%
Delhi 00.0%
Kanpur -700-2.2%
Ahmedabad-788-2.7%
Indore -1100-3.4%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

WRC
SWR14
5.5/6

LocationChange%
Chennai4001.4%
Raipur -711-2.4%
Kolkata4811.7%
Delhi -453-1.4%
Kanpur 3781.3%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

ANGL
GR A
65x6

LocationChange%
Chennai4001.4%
Raipur -711-2.4%
Kolkata4811.7%
Delhi -453-1.4%
Kanpur 3781.3%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

CHNL
GR A
75/100

LocationChange%
Chennai10003.3%
Mumbai-1914-5.9%
Mandi-520-1.5%
Raipur -520-1.7%
Kolkata-90-0.3%
Delhi -520-1.6%
Kanpur -200-0.6%
Ahmedabad-619-2.1%
Indore-800-2.5%
Bangalore5001.5%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

JSTI
GR A
250x125

LocationChange%
Chennai5001.6%
Mumbai-1914-5.7%
Mandi-728-2.0%
Raipur -520-1.7%
Kolkata-642-1.9%
Delhi -520-1.6%
Kanpur -400-1.2%
Ahmedabad-208-0.7%
Indore-400-1.2%
Bangalore5001.5%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Flat products prices improve

Flat product prices exhibited remarkable resilience primarily due transient shortage created by production pruning by steel majors over the last couple of months.

HRC
Tube
2.5x1250

LocationChange%
Mumbai00.0%
Ludhiana 3701.3%
Kolkata2641.0%
Delhi 00.0%
Ahmedabad-277-0.9%
Indore-711-2.4%
Bangalore00.0%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Patra

LocationChange%
Ludhiana 1620.6%
Mandi-831-2.9%
Delhi 00.0%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

PLTS
GRA
8x1.5

LocationChange%
Chennai5001.8%
Mumbai00.0%
Kolkata5251.9%
Delhi 00.0%
Kanpur 5491.9%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

PLTS
GRB
12-20x2.5

LocationChange%
Chennai5001.6%
Mumbai4621.5%
Raipur -888-2.9%
Kolkata4461.6%
Delhi 00.0%
Kanpur 5721.9%
Ahmedabad00.0%
Indore-267-0.9%
Bangalore00.0%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

CR
DSK
0.63x1000

LocationChange%
Chennai5001.5%
Mumbai-924-2.9%
Pune-924-2.9%
Kolkata9803.0%
Delhi 00.0%
Kanpur 6391.9%
Ahmedabad00.0%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

GC
100Gms
0.4

LocationChange%
Chennai5001.4%
Mumbai-1333-3.6%
Kolkata8762.4%
Delhi 00.0%
Kanpur 6751.9%
Bangalore00.0%

Change is on March 6th 2009 as compared to February 27th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Indian steel makers especially HDG and PPGI makers continued to book maerials last week albeit at lower levels, where as plate producers found difficult to get buyers at targeted lvels.

ItemGradeSizeUSDDelivery
BilletCommon125x125None
HRC Structural2-4None
PLTSStructural12-40x2.5480FOB Vizag
HDG100Gms0.4620FOB Mumbai
PPGIStandard RAL0.4800FOB Mumbai

In USD per tonne

Note

1. As international prices for billets are very low at USD 345 per tonne CFR, Indian billet export is not viable.

2. Understand Indian mills are not offering HRC as the domestic demand is very high.

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(Sourced from www.steelprices-india.com)

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