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Monday Market Monitor - India (WEEK 52) - How much is too much
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Monday, 28 Dec 2009
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Indian domestic steel prices continued to exhibit strong upward sentiments last week. The Indian Long Product Price Index ILPPI increased by whooping 842 points whereas Indian Flat Products Index IFPPI increased by 223 points. The overall price index INDSPI increased by 547 points.

Class18-Dec25-DecChange%
ILPPI6301714384213.4%
IFPPI712673492233.1%
INDSPI669472415478.2%


ILPPI - Indian Long Product Price Index
IFPPI - Indian Flat Product Price Index
INDSPI - Indian Steel Price Index

Long Products

Category18-Dec25-DecChange%
PI - TMT6146698784113.7%
PI - WRC6682755787513.1%
PI - Angle6010683982813.8%
PI - Channel6053685780413.3%
PI - Joist5553626771412.9%


PI - Product Index

Flat products

Category18-Dec25-DecChange%
PI - Narrow Plates673269572243.3%
PI - Wide Plates687470912173.1%
PI - Hot Rolled698172232423.5%
PI - Cold Rolled773679402042.6%
PI - Galvanized754576951502.0%


PI - Product Index

To know more about these indices please visit
http://steelprices-india.com/spi_services/spi.html

You can now get ILPPI, IFPPI and INDSPI as SMS alert on mobile by submitting your details at http://steelprices-india.com/smsalert

The reaction of Indian long product market players on Friday, which is reflected in market prices of sponge iron, scrap and pencil ingot at major locations, points to a possible scenario of major correction in coming days.

The market prices changes at some of the important locations in India are
1. December 25th 2009 - HMS down by INR 1000 at Kandla
2. December 25th 2009 - Plate cuttings down by INR 1700 at Alang
3. December 25th 2009 - Sponge iron static at all major locations
4. December 24th 2009 - HMS down by INR 1000 at Mandi

The prices of input material are coming under pressure despite efforts by pencil ingot players to hold on for at least few days. As some of them have large positions, they are reported to be propping up prices resulting in heavy fluctuations on daily basis.

The prices of long products are holding on so far, but reversal in trend is visible.

As per market reports, devoid of real demand from end users, dealers and retailer of rebars resorted to heavy stocking during the up cycle in last 25 days and are now saddled with heavy stocks. But the price movement in last two days has created panic among them as many of them stand to loose heavily if prices of long products see anticipated correction.

The pressure on pencil ingot prices stems form the fact that rerollers, see a clear down trend in coming days, and have reduced their buying of pencil ingots.

A major dealer of rebar told us that although mills are maintaining prices of rebars to clear pending deals, unofficial reduction of INR 500 per tonne to INR 750 per tonne is being offered for new deals, but without any takers.

He said that market players are already in panic and opined that if the sentiments do not become positive small retailers may resort to clearing their stocks at lower prices. He added that if this starts, it could trigger a chain reaction and we could see major reduction in market prices of input materials and long products in next coming days.

On the other hand, flat product market in India is likely to improve further as Indian steel major’s move to hike prices is yet to sink in fully.

1. Input material

Melting scrap
80:20
HMS

LocationChange
Chennai15%
Kandla11%
Kanpur 15%
Kolkata11%
Mandi6%
Mumbai6%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

Alang

ProductSizeChange
Plate cuttings1"2%
ShipsMixed1%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

Pencil ingot

LocationChange
Ahmedabad9%
Bhiwari12%
Durgapur12%
Ghaziabad11%
Hyderabad21%
Jaipur10%
Jamshedpur18%
Kanpur 11%
Kolkata15%
Mandi9%
Mumbai12%
Muzzafarnagar10%
Nagpur15%
Raigarh10%
Raipur 16%
Rourkela16%
Rudrapur9%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

Pig Iron

LocationChange
Agra3%
Jallandhar2%
Kolkata3%
Raipur 2%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

Sponge iron

LocationChange
Bellary17%
Kolkata8%
Raigarh17%
Raipur 14%
Rourkela14%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

2. Long products

TMT
Fe 415
12mm

LocationChange
Ahmedabad11%
Chennai19%
Delhi 15%
Indore 14%
Kanpur 14%
Kolkata17%
Mandi8%
Mumbai10%
Raipur 15%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

WRC
SWR14
5.5/6

LocationChange
Chennai8%
Delhi 10%
Kanpur 12%
Kolkata18%
Raipur 19%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

ANGL
Grade A
65X65X6

LocationChange
Ahmedabad10%
Bangalore14%
Chennai17%
Delhi 12%
Indore11%
Kanpur 12%
Kolkata17%
Mandi12%
Mumbai10%
Raipur 15%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

CNHL
Grade A
75/40

LocationChange
Ahmedabad10%
Bangalore14%
Chennai15%
Delhi 15%
Indore13%
Kanpur 11%
Kolkata15%
Mandi12%
Mumbai10%
Raipur 16%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

JSTI
Grade A
250X125

LocationChange
Ahmedabad8%
Bangalore14%
Chennai15%
Delhi 13%
Indore13%
Kanpur 11%
Kolkata15%
Mandi8%
Mumbai10%
Raipur 18%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

3. Flat products

HRC
Tube
2.5x1250

LocationChange
Ahmedabad4%
Bangalore7%
Delhi 6%
Indore6%
Kolkata1%
Ludhiana 3%
Mumbai0%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

Patra

LocationChange
Delhi 16%
Ludhiana 5%
Mandi8%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

Plates
Grade A
8X1250/1500

LocationChange
Chennai2%
Delhi 6%
Kanpur 7%
Kolkata0%
Mumbai0%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

Plates
GRADE B
12-20X2500

LocationChange
Ahmedabad2%
Bangalore7%
Chennai2%
Delhi 6%
Indore6%
Kanpur 6%
Kolkata1%
Mumbai0%
Raipur 0%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

CR
DSK
0.63x1000

LocationChange
Ahmedabad5%
Chennai0%
Delhi 3%
Kanpur 4%
Kolkata1%
Mumbai1%
Pune1%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

GC
100Gms
0.4

LocationChange
Bangalore6%
Chennai0%
Delhi 2%
Kanpur 4%
Kolkata0%
Mumbai1%


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009

4. Indian Export Levels

Export levels of HDG and PPGI from Indian mills surged further last week

ItemGradeSizeDeliveryChange
HDG100Gms0.4FOB Mumbai20
HDG100Gms0.58FOB Mumbai15
HDG275Gms0.75FOB Mumbai10
PLTSStructural12-40x2.5FOB Vizag0
PPGIStandard RAL0.4FOB Mumbai15


Change is on December 25th as compared to December 18th 2009
Change is in USD per tonne

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(Sourced from www.steelprices-india.com)

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