5 months 2012 car sales fell by 7.7% YoY
CV sales show similar trend
Car exports under pressure
Output seen falling in H2 2012
From Q2 2013, activity seen improving again
The EU passenger car market did not show any signs of improvement in Q2 2012. Sales fell 6.9% YoY in April 2012 and 8.7% YoY in May 2012, pushing the year-to-date drop in car sales to 7.7%. Sharp declines in sales were registered in France, Italy and Spain; German car sales were stable whereas the UK was the only large market registering moderate growth. Registrations in most Central European markets remained on an upward trend. The downward trend in commercial vehicle sales also intensified in recent months. Total sales fell almost 18% YoY in May 2012, following a 7.9% YoY drop in Q1 2012.
The most affected market segment is light commercial vehicles, demand in the medium and heavy truck segment is still holding up better.
Export demand for passenger cars also lost momentum in Q2 2012. German exports fell by more than 17% YoY in May 2012, reflecting that globally the car market is currently going through a soft patch. US car sales continuing at a strong pace and the weaker Euro remained supportive to sales abroad.
On average, Q1 2012 automotive output still registered a moderate increase; first estimates for output in Q2 show growth having reversed into a decline. Output in France, Italy and Spain, where the automotive sector is more domestically focused already fell quite sharply in H1 2012. Meanwhile, production in Germany, the UK, Austria and the Central European manufacturing hub (except Poland) continued to expand. The remainder of 2012 will see intensifying downward pressure on output. Weak sentiment and financing restrictions will act as a drag on overall vehicle sales. Car makers renewing their model line up and a positive trend in parts and components output cannot fully offset the negative impact of weakening private consumption and investment on EU demand.
Also exports look set to lose some further momentum in the months ahead. On balance, total automotive output is foreseen to fall by around 2% in 2012. 2013 forecasts show from Q2 a slight improvement in output as confidence gradually returns to the markets and financing conditions improve. This could unleash some pent-up demand. Exports should also contribute positively. On balance automotive production is seen growing almost 2%.
Source - EUROFER
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