Real steel consumption in the EU increased by more than 8% YoY in Q2 2011, driven by still robust growth momentum in the manufacturing sectors. The deceleration from the double digit growth pace in the first quarter marked the transition to a more sustainable growth trend as the effect of temporary factors boosting activity faded away.
Real steel consumption
| Period | Change |
| FY '10 | 4.8% |
| Q1 '11 | 13.8% |
| Q2 '11 | 7.6% |
| Q3 '11 | 2.3% |
| Q4 '11 | 1.7% |
| FY '11 | 6.1% |
| Q1 '12 | 0.6% |
| Q2 '12 | 1.9% |
| Q3 '12 | 2.4% |
| Q4 '12 | 3.2% |
| FY '12 | 2% |
Looking forward, a further cooling down of real steel consumption growth is on the cards for the coming quarters. First estimates for Q3 real consumption signal a further slowdown in growth to just below 2.5% YoY, in line with the manufacturing recovery losing steam.
In Q4 2011 consumption growth may slip below 2% YoY, which will result in total real steel consumption in 2011 rising by around 6%. Prospects for 2012 have remained mildly positive despite high levels of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the steel using industries in the EU. Activity in the manufacturing sectors and in construction will continue to grow, albeit in the case of the manufacturing industry at a significantly slower pace than in 2010 and 2011.
Particularly in the first half of 2012 real steel consumption is forecast to grow only modestly. From mid 2012 onwards improving end user fundamentals should result in a modest acceleration in consumption growth. On balance, real steel consumption is projected to increase by 2% in 2012.
