A panel organized by China Iron & Steel Association observed and revised 2006 forecast on China's steel market consumption by 2010. CISA has issued an amended forecast, which says in 2007, China will consume 425 million tonnes to 450 million tonnes of crude steel and 400 million tonnes to 420 million tonnes finished products excluding double counted steel products. CISA forecast added that by 2010, 510 million tonnes 550 million tonnes crude steel consumption and 480 million tonnes to 520 million tonnes finished products consumption excluding double count.

Yet the panel pointed out if China's economy keeps 11% growth in later four years 2007-2010, with fixed asset investment, foreign trade and consumption giving an unchanged push to the economy, the nation's steel product consumption may exceed highest forecast and go above 520 million tonnes by the end of 11th five-year plan period.

The three research institutes participated in revision forecasting have their results respectively.

1. Forecasting by China Metallurgical Industry Planning & Research Institute, by adopting mathematical model method and consumption flexibility etc

In million tonnes

2.Forecasting by Metallurgical Economic Research & Development Center under the Ministry of Metallurgical Industry, by mainly studying crude steel consumption and then calculating that of finished products according to finished product ratio and double count ratio

In million tonnes
Finished steel 1 – excludes double counted products
Finished steel 2 – includes double counted products

3. Forecasting by China Metallurgical Information & Standardization Research Institute, which is based on micro analysis of capacity and import/export changes and various predictions by overseas authoritative institutions

In million tonnes
Finished steel 1 – excludes double counted products
Finished steel 2 – includes double counted products

(Sourced from MySteel.net)