The United States Energy Information Administration said that “Total consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum products averaged 19.4 million bbl/d in 2008 down nearly 1.3 million bbl/d from 2007. Based on the prospects of a continuing weak economy, consumption is projected to shrink by an additional 570,000 bbl/d in 2009 led by a 200,000 bbl/d fall in distillate fuel consumption.

The assumed gradual economic recovery in 2010 is expected to contribute to a 250,000-bbl/d increase in total liquid fuels consumption. Having fallen by 320,000 bbl/d last year motor gasoline consumption is projected to increase slightly in 2009 and then rise by a further 70,000 bbl/d in 2010 or 0.7%as continuing high unemployment constrains increases in driving activity.”

It said that “Total domestic crude oil production averaged 4.96 million bbl/d in 2008 down from 5.06 million bbl/d in 2007. Crude oil production is projected to increase to an average of 5.20 million bbl/d in 2009 and 5.33 million bbl/d in 2010. Contributing to the increases in output are the Gulf of Mexico Thunder Horse and Tahiti platforms.

EIA further said that “WTI crude oil prices, which averaged USD 99.57 per barrel in 2008 are projected to average USD 52 per barrel in 2009 and USD 58 per barrel in 2010. These prices are about USD 1 per barrel and USD 5 per barrel respectively below those projected in last month’s Outlook. However a stronger-than-expected economic recovery or lower non OPEC production could lead to a faster and stronger rise in oil prices. As always, energy price forecasts are highly uncertain. Both recent experience and the sizable participation in near-term crude oil futures options contracts at strike prices that are significantly different from current futures market prices clearly demonstrate that crude oil prices can move within a wide range in a relatively short period.”