While rising equity markets and supposed revival in market sentiments are adding to gains of industrial metals, the demand supply scenario continue to portray a dismal picture.
According to latest data released by International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global market saw an oversupply of lead and zinc in the first quarter 2009.
Lead
| 2007 | 2008 | Q1 '08 | Q1 '09 | |
| Production | 8122 | 8671 | 2024 | 2040 |
| Usage | 8189 | 8648 | 2025 | 2007 |
| Change | -67% | 23% | -1% | 33% |
In '000 tonne
Zinc
| 2007 | 2008 | Q1 '08 | Q1 '09 | |
| Production | 11360 | 11666 | 2852 | 2605 |
| Usage | 11275 | 11483 | 2764 | 2418 |
| Change | 85% | 183% | 88% | 187% |
In '000 tonne
Source from ILZSG
The lead market was oversupplied by an estimated 33000 tonne for the first 3 month of 2009, compared to a reported shortage of 1000 tonne in the same period last year.
On a similar ground lead market experienced a surplus of nearly 187000 tonne, a more than 200% jump in the oversupply experienced in the same quarter of 2008.
Zinc was the first industrial metal that experienced a decline since mid 2007 due to a rise in supply. In 2007, the zinc market was oversupplied by 87,000 tonne followed by about 187,000 tonne of surplus in 2008. Compared to this, the Q1 oversupply for 2009 looks huge.
Meanwhile Lead marker that was running with a deficit till 2007, faced an over supply of 23000 tonne for the year 2008 in 2009, the oversupply could see a sizeable gain given that for the first quarter itself the supply has risen by 42% compared to the total oversupply for 2008.
One respite however comes looking at the supply demand numbers for the month of March 2009. With a plunge in global demand since mid 2008, a big numbers of producers and smelters have announced considerable production cuts. Most of these cuts however were announced post December 2009. For December 2009 while zinc market experienced a deficit of 8000 tonne, lead market witnessed drop in over supply from 51000 tonne in February to 20000 tonne.
(Sourced from ET)
