BNP Paribas has cut its estimate of the 2011 underlying deficit in the Copper market to 300,000 tonnes from the previous 500,000. BNP then looks for the copper market to be barely balanced in 2012 and says any surplus in 2013 will be modest.

With emerging nations now accounting for nearly 70% of first use demand, BNP said that it looks for world copper consumption to remain on an upward path.

Mr Stephen Briggs senior metals strategist said that “We have trimmed our forecasts of growth by a further half percentage point to around 4% for both 2011 and 2012, comprising about 6% in emerging countries and flat demand in developed nations. At the same time, BNP has slightly upped its estimate of world refined production this year.”

BNP said that the industry could raise refined output by as much as 4% in 2011, chiefly due to smelters running down concentrate stocks accumulated last year. But given widespread poor performance and current labor unrest in Indonesia and Peru, growth in global mine production may yet fall short of even the feeble 1.5% we currently forecast.

Its view of the market balance this year remains at odds with the trend in visible stocks, which have risen. The bank says the explanation lies in China running down its stockpile that was built up in the Q4 of 2008 and 2009 to 2010.

(Sourced from www.commodityonline.com)