Broking firm Kotak Commodity Services gave following outlook on base metals segments:
Copper - MCX Copper may note some decline tracking international market however prices may continue to trade in a narrow range. LME Copper is trading lower in today as investors await Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke`s Speech on Friday at Jackson Hole Symposium for signs of whether the Fed may opt for another round of quantitative easing. Also putting pressure on the prices is fears of weakening demand tracking bleak macro-economic outlook and deepening worries over debt crisis in Euro Zone. Further putting pressure on the prices is slight rebound in US Dollar and choppiness in global equities.
The downside may however be capped amid hopes of monetary easing by central banks of US and China and expectation of policy intervention by ECB to stem debt crisis in Euro Area. Also lending support is falling stocks at LME warehouses and expectation of tighter physical markets. Stocks at LME fell by 1,350 tonnes. Prices may further track economic data releases and its impact on movement in global equity and currency markets. As for today, focus will be on German Gkf Consumer climate and US GDP, Pending Home Sales and US Beige Book. Support for August copper is seen at INR 421 while resistance is seen at INR 428.
Aluminum - MCX Aluminum may note some decline tracking international market, however the downside remains capped. Lending support to the prices is recent decline in stocks at LME warehouses coupled with higher energy prices. Stocks at LME fell by 10,650 tonnes. Support for Aluminum August contract is seen at INR 103.5 while resistance of INR 106.
Zinc - MCX Zinc may note some decline tracking international market, however the downside remains capped. Prices may come under pressure tracking higher surplus in physical markets however recent decline in stocks at LME warehouses may cap the downside. According to a monthly bulletin from Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group the global zinc market was in surplus by 152,000 tonnes in the first six months of the year. Meanwhile, Stocks at LME fell by 3,950 tonnes yesterday after declining by 13,100 tonnes last week. Support for MCX Zinc August contract is seen at INR 101.5 while resistance is seen at INR 104.
Nickel - MCX Nickel may note some decline tracking weakness in copper prices however the downside remains capped. Weighing on prices is rebound in US Dollar and choppiness in equities. Also putting pressure on the prices is weak global demand and higher surplus in physical markets. According to the latest monthly bulletin from Lisbon based International Nickel Study Group the global nickel market was in supply surplus of 34,800 tonnes in the first 6 months of 2012. Further stocks rose by 714 tonnes last week. The downside may however be capped amid rising cancel warrants at LME warehouses. Support for MCX Nickel August contract is seen at INR 890 while resistance is seen at INR 920.
Lead - MCX Lead may note some decline tracking international market however the downside remains capped. Weighing on the prices is higher surplus in physical markets however falling stocks at LME warehouses coupled with robust demand from China may cap the downside. According to a monthly bulletin from Lisbon based International Lead and Zinc Study Group the global lead market was in surplus by 48,000 tonnes in the first six months of the year. Meanwhile stocks at LME fell by 925 tonnes last week. Support for MCX Lead August contract is seen at INR 108 while resistance is seen at INR 111.
Source - Myiris.com
(www.steelguru.com)
