General growth in Asia varies between the mature market of Japan, which has experienced years of flat growth and China which has been growing at 11% per annum. Whilst we predict that Japan's growth is likely to expand in 2012 with reconstruction after the earthquake and tsunami in March of 2011, the strong value of the YEN against the USD will continue to affect exports.

The trend of Japan's automotive and electronics plants moving to low cost countries in South East Asia or to North America and Eastern Europe is expected to continue. This is likely to impact on the growth in Japan in the medium to long term.

Demand in Korea and Taiwan is expected to moderate in 2012 with a slowdown in US and Europe related export activity and contraction of the domestic construction sectors.

China's growth related to slower exports is expected to be offset by an easing of credit availability as the government attempts to rebalance with domestic consumption based on infrastructure and housing spending. Early indications show that the decline has bottomed and GDP will grow at about 9.5% in 2012.

For the first time since 2009, imports of primary aluminium are commercially attractive due to the arbitrage in LME and SHFE prices. In 2012, arbitrage windows are expected to open periodically due to short term supply demand imbalances in China.

Premiums in Asia as reflected by the CIF MJP indicator are expected to remain firm at or above the 2011 year end levels on 7% regional demand growth coupled with an expectation of curtailed supply from the traditional smelting centers in Australasia.