
Mr Prasad Baji of Edelweiss Securities Limited in a note to clients wrote
1. 100,000 tonne per annum of lead smelter at Dariba has been commissioned in Q2 FY12 and management expects ramp up to full capacity in the next Q2 to Q3.
2. Management expects H2 FY12 refined zinc production to remain more or less at the H1 level which totals up to 756 kilo tonne for FY12. Our full year assumption is 788 kilo tonne. However, we believe that H2 is likely to be slightly better than H1 and hence does not pose a significant risk to our estimates.
3. Silver production: Company reported production of 1.58 million ounces for Q2 FY12 taking the total to 3.09 million ounces for H1 FY12. For the full year FY12, management is guiding for silver production of 8 million to 12 million ounces while our estimate for the full year is 365 tonnes. This poses a downside risk to our numbers but is mitigated by a lower realization or kilogram estimate of INR 48,000 vs INR 58,243 expected in H1 FY12.
4. At BALCO, the first unit of 300 MW is likely to get synchronized in Q3 FY2012 instead of Q2 FY 2012. We have assumed no generation from this new CPP in FY 2012. Approvals for coal blocks are delayed by another quarter and the same is expected to come by Q1 FY 2013.
5. Sterlite Energy: Delay in commissioning of 3rd unit. Out of the total 2,400 MW Jharsuguda power plant project, the third unit of 600 MW is now likely to get commissioned in Q3 FY 2012. We have already factored in this delay. Management expects power tariff to steadily increase to INR 4 per unit going forward. Company expects to obtain 30% to 35% linkage coal from Coal India for all the additionally capacities.










