NATO recently literally shot itself in the foot, imperiling the resupply of International Assistance Forces in Afghanistan by shooting up two Pakistani border posts in a hot pursuit raid.
Given that roughly 100 fuel tanker trucks along with 200 other trucks loaded with NATO supplies cross into Afghanistan each day from Pakistan, Pakistan's closure of the border has ominous long-term consequences for the logistical resupply of ISAF forces, even as Pentagon officials downplay the issue and scramble for alternative resupply routes.
Pakistan, long angry about ISAF and NATO cross border raids has apparently reached the end of its tether. Following the November 26th 2011 NATO aerial assault on two border posts in Mohmand Agency in Pakistan's turbulent NorthWest Frontier Province, Islamabad promptly sealed its border with Afghanistan to NATO supplies after the allied strikes killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.
The US military insists a joint patrol with Afghan forces was fired upon first and only responded with return fire and calling in airstrikes on the posts, which a commander mistakenly identified as Taliban training camps after reportedly checking that there were no Pakistani military forces nearby.
Pakistan Major General Ishfaq Nadeem director general of military operations rebutted Washington's assertions said that "The positions of the posts were already conveyed to the ISAF through map references and it was impossible that they did not know these to be our posts."
Mr Nesar Ahmad Nasery deputy head of Torkham Customs said that around 1,000 trucks cross into Afghanistan on a daily basis nearly 300 of which are NATO contractors carrying NATO supplies in sealed containers.
Mr Shakir Afridi chief of Khyber Transport Association said that each oil tanker has a capacity of 13,000 gallon to 15,000 gallons. In October 2010 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen said that fossil fuels are the number one import to Afghanistan.
Noting the obvious, as Afghanistan has no indigenous hydrocarbon supplies, every drop must be brought in with transit greatly increasing the eventual cost. For 2001 to 2008 almost all US and NATO supplies were trucked overland to Afghanistan through parts of Pakistan effectively controlled by the Taliban.
Ground supplies are shipped into Pakistan's Arabian Sea Karachi port and offloaded onto trucks before being sent to one of five crossing points on the Afghan border the most important being Torkham at the Khyber Pass and Baluchistan's Chaman. The recent attack has put all these routes at risk, perhaps permanently. Pakistan, being the shortest and most economical route, has been used for nearly a decade to transit almost 75% of the ammunition, vehicles, foodstuff and around 50 percent of fuel for coalition forces fighting in Afghanistan.
Recently Mr Rehman Malik interior minister addressing journalists at the Ministry of the Interior's National Crisis Management Cell, after strongly condemning the NATO attack on Pakistani forces stated that the resupply routes for NATO via Pakistan have been stopped permanently. The decisions of the Defense Cabinet Committee on the NATO forces attack inside Pakistan would be implemented in letter and spirit, stressing that "The decisions of the DCC are final and would be implemented."
The major issue at stake here for ISAF and US forces is fuel, all of which must be brought in from abroad at high cost. In October 2009 Pentagon officials testified before the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee that the Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel translates to about USD 400 per gallon by the time it arrives at a remote Forward Operating Base in Afghanistan. Last year, the FBCF reached $800 in some FOBs following supply route bombings in Pakistan while others have claimed the FBCF may be as high as USD 1,000 per gallon in some remote locations. For many remote locations, fuel supplies can only be provided by air one of the most expensive ways being in helicopter fuel bladders.
Mr Alan Haggerty deputy undersecretary of Defense said that the majority of US tonnage transported into Afghanistan is fuel 70%. The Marines' calculate that 39% of their tonnage is fuel and 90% is either fuel or water.
Colonel Wayne Shanks spokesman of ISAF said that there are currently nearly 400 US and coalition bases in Afghanistan, ranging from the massive Bagram airbase outside Kabul down to camps, forward operating bases and combat outposts.
The Pakistani supply lines have come under increasing attack by militants. Baluchistan Home Secretary Akbar Hussain Durani noted that last year, 136 NATO tankers were destroyed in 56 attacks in the province with 34 people killed and 23 wounded in the assaults.
But NATO and the Pentagon have a backup plan since 2009 they have been shifting their logistics to the Northern Distribution Network a railway link running from Latvia's Riga Baltic port through Russia and Kazakhstan terminating in Uzbekistan's Termez on the Afghan border.
The NDN is a joint initiative of multiple Department of Defense agencies, including the US Transportation Command, CENTCOM, the US European Command, the Defense Logistics Agency and the Department of State. The NDN's first shipment was sent on 20 February 2009 from Riga 3,212 miles to Termez with US commanders stating that 100 containers daily would be transported via the NDN. The supply trains have been given preferential right of way to speed the trip to about nine days.
According to Pentagon officials, its goal is eventually to be able to bring 75% of its equipment into Afghanistan from the north. But the true number of forces to be resupplied is far higher. Last year the Pentagon's Central Command put the number of contractors for the US military at 107,000.
According to ISAF spokesman Lieutenant Gregory Keeley in Kabul, the NDN now accounts for 52% of coalition cargo transport and 40% for the US which also receives around 30% of its supplies by air.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/International/Furious-at-Latest-U.S.-Attack-Pakistan-Shuts-Down-Resupply-Routes-to-Afghanistan-Permanently.html
By. John CK Daly of http://oilprice.com
