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Recession report - MEA sees double dip recession in 2012
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Monday, 23 Jan 2012
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According to a survey of more than 500 senior executives released by AlixPartners LLP, the global business advisory firm, in collaboration with the Economist Intelligence Unit, global business leaders are shifting their focus away from survival towards planning for growth in 2012 and beyond, citing increasing revenue as their top priority, above cost cutting.

However, even though 69% of those surveyed say their companies are sitting on as much or more cash today as three years ago, 62% see a sovereign debt default in the euro zone as likely or very likely this year and an even higher percentage, 63%, think the same way regarding a double dip recession in the global economy. Meanwhile, when asked what governments could do to help business, 46% said increase investment incentives, 38% said cut taxes and 35% said reduce regulatory burdens, the first two often difficult to achieve in an environment of austerity.

As a result, says the survey, companies see themselves proceeding cautiously in the next 12 to 36 months, on almost all fronts.

Mr Fred Crawford CEO of AlixPartners said that "In early 2009 AlixPartners was among the first to predict that economies in the West would not bounce back following the so called Great Recession as they had following past recessions, that the new normal would be characterized by bruised consumer confidence, lower demand levels and, consequently, lower levels of output. Unfortunately, the new normal is upon us, as a fairly high level of geopolitical uncertainty combines with what some would say is a lack of effective economic and political leadership around the world, yielding an economy very much in limbo. It's against this backdrop that companies are forced to take market share to grow, searching for what might be called stingy growth, growth characterized by an unwillingness to spend any more than is absolutely necessary."

Mr John Hoffecker MD at AlixPartners and co lead of the firm's Enterprise Improvement unit said that "Given the externalities of today’s world, stingy growth is really just another name for smart growth. After years of cut backs, companies today know they need to grow, in part so as not to be left behind by their competitors. But they also know that in a world of limited growth, capturing share requires a delicate balance of aggressiveness and prudence, of old fashioned optimism tempered with the latest tools and insights into fact based decision making."

Mr Patrick Byrne MD of AlixPartners and also co lead of the firm's Enterprise Improvement unit said that "We live today in a world of limits, where as a result competitors are nothing short of ruthless in fighting for either market share or what growth that exists. Winners in this world know they can’t shrink their way to growth, but they also know they can't simply scrap and scramble as they might have in past periods. Success today means taking a holistic approach to all aspects of revenues and costs, from product development to sourcing to distribution and sales."

The survey revealed several key priority areas for companies looking for growth: technology investment; mergers and acquisitions; entering new markets, notably new markets in the Asia Pacific region and, eventually, increased capital expenditures.

Middle East respondents reflected the most gloom about the global economy, as 70% believe that it is likely or very likely that there will be a double dip recession within the next year. That compares to about 63% when all survey responses are counted.

Middle Easterners are also have reservations about the outlook for their own region, as 64% expect to see continued unrest in the Middle East political situation in the coming year. Rising food and commodity prices will also be a concern, as 44% of respondents in the region see persistently high prices leading to widespread social unrest.

Companies in the Middle East, as in other areas of the world, have refilled their cash coffers in the past three years, with about 55% of those surveyed saying their cash positions have at least somewhat improved. However, only 24% of that group said they would be using that cash for domestic acquisitions tied for last with European respondents and far below Latin America's 43%.

Instead, 37% of the respondents said that domestically, they would use their new found cash to diversify their products mix or invest in new IT technology.

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