August 22, 2008

MEPS forecast Asian steel prices rally to keep global figures steady

MEPS reported that customers' inventories are said to be lower now in Canada imports are minimal. Once the seasonal downturn is over, local producers expect to see a pick up in demand although distributors report slow activity levels. However, delivery lead times remain short with some mills still willing to do deals in order to keep their operations busy.

MEPS said that “We have noted a complete reversal of the price tendency in China over the summer. Domestic values are escalating sharply. Tight supply together with high raw material costs is triggering the increases. Maintenance work planned by several major mills is likely to cause further restrictions on output.” It added that inventories of strip mill products continue to climb in Japan. Total domestic stocks of coil held by steelmakers and service centers at end July, grew by 3.3% from the previous month. However, prices are expected to rise due to a reduction in imports. Quayside inventories fell by 1% in the same time frame.

MEPS said that some prices have started to move up in South Korea, where we can detect signs of strengthening demand. In Taiwan, CSC is to give priority to meeting brisk consumption in the home market. Thus, shipments to Japan will be cut sharply in the fourth quarter. As expected, the company will keep official domestic strip mill prices for period four unchanged.

MEPS added that Polish values have slipped over the quiet holiday period. Mittal Steel Poland will roll over the September figures for October business. So far, there is no visible pick up in sales. Distributors' inventories are at a very high point and are not being replenished at present. Nevertheless, the longer term outlook remains good. Czech/Slovak producers are busy. Order intake is sound and mill stocks are normal. Imports are not disruptive. Generally, customers prefer to buy domestic material. Export business remains profitable.

MEPS further added that activity is slowly returning to the EU market after the dormant summer holiday period. The quantities of imported strip mill products arriving in Southern Europe dropped in August 2007. Customers are expecting import price offers to be higher during the Autumn because of an anticipated decline in availability from China and a need to recover escalating raw material costs. Nevertheless, some local prices have slipped during the vacation this is particularly true for the coated products. EU producers still appear undecided regarding period four pricing.