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September 08, 2008


Zinc global demand and output in 2008 to be up by 5.8%

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group said that global zinc demand is set to increase by 5.2% to 11.85 million tonnes in 2008 as global zinc mine production ramps up by 10.4% to 12.08 million tonnes.

The report said that the rising levels of demand will be mainly due to growth in Asia, with usage in China forecast to rise by a further 10.4% primarily as a consequence of further investment in domestic infrastructure projects. Demand is also expected to increase in India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Thailand.

ILZSG said that in Europe, predicted rises in demand in Belgium, France, Poland, the Russian Federation and Spain will be partially offset by falls in Germany and Italy, resulting in an overall increase of 0.9%. After falling by a significant 11.8% in 2007 to its lowest level since 1991, demand in the US is forecast to rise by 4.8% in 2008.

The ILZSG indicated the increased capacities at established mines and the opening of new sites as major factors influencing the metals global mine production increase in 2008. It said that 2007's opening of Apex Silver's San Cristobal mine would result in a significant increase in Bolivian output alongside the commissioning of new capacity in a number of other countries including Australia, Canada, China, India, Peru, Portugal and the US.

World output of refined zinc metal is forecast to rise by 6.4% to 12.06 million tonnes in 2008. Further significant increases are expected in China and India, where Hindustan Zinc's second 170,000 tonne per year capacity refinery at Chanderiya was commissioned in December 2007. Rises are also forecast in a number of other countries including Canada, Iran, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Peru and the US.

The report said that Chinese net exports of refined zinc metal this year were expected to be significantly lower than in 2007, mainly as a result of rising domestic demand. However, net imports of zinc contained in zinc concentrates in 2008 are forecast to remain close to the record levels achieved in 2007.

The latest forecasts supplied by the Group's member countries indicate that global supply of refined zinc metal will exceed demand by 215,000 tonnes in 2008.