World Steel Association is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by 8.6% to 1,104 million tonnes in 2009 after declining by 1.4% in 2008. This is an improved figure over the spring forecast issued in April 2009 which predicted a decrease of 14.1%.
The improvement is largely due to the exceptionally strong growth in steel demand in China. With signs, from the beginning of the second half of 2009, of a recovery across the world now apparent, global steel demand in 2010 is forecast to grow by 9.2% to 1,206 million tonnes which is a recovery to the level of 2008.
Mr Daniel Novegil chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said that "The global recovery is stronger than we predicted in April. According to our current forecast, China will rebound 19% in 2009 and 5 % in 2010. Emerging economies will slow down 17% in 2009, to grow 12% in 2010. Apparent steel use in developed economies, that contracted 34% in 2009, will rebound 15% in 2010. Therefore worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will return to growth in 2010 but this is expected to be moderate. As before the financial crisis, the emerging economies, especially China, will be the critical factor in driving world steel demand in the near future."
He added that "While the state of the global economy has improved, uncertainties and concerns regarding the resilience of the recovery still remain with the possibility of any premature reduction in Government stimulus actions. This uncertainty particularly exists for the Chinese economy in 2010, whose fast recovery in 2009 was largely enabled by such strong government stimulus policies."
Short range outlook for apparent steel use (2008-2010)
| Regions | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 07/08 | 08/09 | 09/10 |
| EU (27) | 181.283 | 122.255 | 137.425 | -8.2% | -32.6% | 12.4% |
| Other Europe | 25.316 | 20.813 | 23.817 | -10.8% | -17.8% | 14.4% |
| CIS | 48.946 | 33.852 | 36.638 | -13.5% | -30.8% | 8.2% |
| NAFTA | 128.955 | 82.771 | 96.932 | -8.2% | -35.8% | 17.1% |
| Ctrl & S America | 44.277 | 33.455 | 36.685 | 6.5% | -24.4% | 9.7% |
| Africa | 26.170 | 26.285 | 29.277 | 11.4% | 0.4% | 11.4% |
| Middle East | 43.055 | 38.834 | 42.946 | 6.9% | -9.8% | 10.6% |
| Asia and Oceania | 709.010 | 745.471 | 801.866 | 1.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% |
In million tonnes
| Regions | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 07/08 | 08/09 | 09/10 |
| World | 1,207.010 | 1,103.74 | 1,205.59 | -1.4% | -8.6% | 9.2% |
| BRIC | 553.772 | 625.853 | 662.679 | 1.6% | 13.0% | 5.9% |
| World (excl. BRIC) | 653.241 | 477.882 | 542.906 | -3.8% | -26.8% | 13.6% |
| World (excl. China) | 764.049 | 577.493 | 653.032 | -3.7% | -24.4% | 13.1% |
In million tonnes
(Sourced from www.worldsteel.org)