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Monday, 02 Nov 2009
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Monday Market Monitor - China (WEEK 44) - Speculation pushing prices up
Monday, 02 Nov 2009

The Chinese Long Product Price Index CLPPI increased by 65 point whereas the Chinese Flat Products Index CFPPI continued increasing by posting gain of 86 points. The overall price index CHISPI increased by 77 points.

Class23-Oct30-OctChange%
CLPPI57145779651.1%
CFPPI56895775861.5%
CHISPI57005777771.4%


CLPPI - Chinese Long Product Price Index
CFPPI - Chinese Flat Product Price Index
CHISPI - Chinese Steel Price Index

Long Products

Category23-Oct30-OctChange%
PI-WRC49655019541.1%
PI-Rebar66196698801.2%


PI - Product Index

Flat Products

Category23-Oct30-OctChange%
PI-PLTS49425002611.2%
PI-HR56145711971.7%
PI-CR63776454771.2%
PI-GP61206196761.2%


PI - Product Index

To know more about these indices please visit
http://steelprices-china.com/spi_services/spi.html

The high inventories and the imbalance between supply and demand have affected market players’ confidence to Chinese steel market. But the rebound in the middle of October is given a positive impression to players, though it just remains a short time, especially the increase of HR price.

Chinese steel market situation has witnessed lot of uncertainties and ups and downs in the last two months of 2009 due to following factors

1. High level of production
According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics, total volume of plate is 231 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2009 up by 5.4%YoY. HRC and medium strip occupy 119 million tonnes up by 11.5% YoY. In other words, due to high rate of increase, the imbalance between supply and demand has surfaced clearly.

2. Increasing inventories
The first nine months inventories of HR products in main cities of China are 1.2 times than that in the early of this year, far more than other steel types.

3. Raw material price on down path
Raw materials price slightly increased in the second quarter, but it changed in the third quarter. For example, scrap steel price reduced greatly. This fall creates the condition for the reduction of steel price. In addition, the negotiation of iron ore adjusts market players’ mood. They become calm and accept the drop of iron ore price.

4. Increasing supply in international market
Because of the economic recovery, many countries resumed production, thus the steel supply in international market is increasing. According to the data of worldsteel, the volume of crude steel in 66 countries in first 9 months is 866 million tonnes down by 16.4% YoY as compared o 18.1% in first 8 months, reflecting that rate of production cut is reducing.

Moreover, other factors influencing the trend of Chinese steel market are
1. Low increase of newly gained loan effecting steel consumption
2. Likely overcapacity in winter when the consumption would go down and more steel would be added to the inventories
3. Steel export volumes would not be large enough to change the basic situation of imbalance between supply and demand in China.

1. Long products - On up trend

Billets
150*150
Q235

LocationCNYUSD
Jiangsu Province507
Shandong Province507
Hebei Province304
Shanxi Province7010
Tianjin507
Fujian Province10015


Change is on October 30th as compared to October 23rd 2009
Change is per tonne

WRC
6.5mm
Common

LocationCNYUSD
Shanghai101
Hangzhou8012
Nanjing12018
Changsha10015
Zhengzhou203
Chengdu406
Guiyang304
Kunming203
Urumchi00


Change is on October 30th as compared to October 23rd 2009
Change is per tonne

Rebars
20mm
HRB 400

LocationCNYUSD
Shanghai507
Hangzhou10015
Nanjing8012
Jinan203
Hefei406
Fuzhou101
Nanchang609
Guangzhou203
Changsha11016
Wuhan9013
Zhengzhou00
Beijing406
Tianjin507
Shijiazhuang507
Taiyuan507
Shenyang00
Harbin00
Chongqing-30-4
Chengdu203
Guiyang507
Kunming507
Xian7010
Lanzhou8012
Urumchi507


Change is on October 30th as compared to October 23rd 2009
Change is per tonne

2. Flats - Rebound continues

HRC
4.75mm
Common

LocationCNYUSD
Shanghai00
Hangzhou-40-6
Nanjing101
Jinan10015
Hefei203
Fuzhou00
Nanchang7010
Guangzhou00
Changsha304
Wuhan507
Zhengzhou406
Beijing507
Tianjin00
Shijiazhuang304
Taiyuan10015
Shenyang304
Harbin507
Chongqing10015
Chengdu507
Kunming00
Xian7010
Lanzhou203
Urumchi10015


Change is on October 30th as compared to October 23rd 2009
Change is per tonne

Plates
20mm
Common

LocationCNYUSD
Shanghai10015
Hangzhou507
Nanjing507
Jinan10015
Hefei507
Fuzhou8012
Nanchang8012
Guangzhou507
Changsha406
Wuhan507
Zhengzhou203
Beijing304
Tianjin304
Taiyuan7010
Shenyang304
Harbin00
Chongqing7010
Chengdu304
Kunming304
Xian304
Lanzhou00
Urumchi00


Change is on October 30th as compared to October 23rd 2009
Change is per tonne

CR
1.0mm
Common

LocationCNYUSD
Shanghai507
Hangzhou7010
Nanjing507
Jinan10015
Qingdao10015
Hefei203
Fuzhou10015
Nanchang507
Guangzhou10015
Changsha10015
Wuhan8012
Zhengzhou7010
Beijing20029
Tianjin507
Shijiazhuang10015
Taiyuan507
Shenyang507
Harbin00
Chongqing304
Chengdu00
Kunming00
Xian00
Lanzhou00
Urumchi00


Change is on October 30th as compared to October 23rd 2009
Change is per tonne

HDG
0.5mm
Common

LocationCNYUSD
Shanghai00
Hangzhou7010
Beijing10015
Tianjin507
Boxing9013
Guangzhou00
Zhengzhou00
Xian00
Shenyang507
Harbin203
Nanchang507
Fuzhou25037
Chongqing507
Wuhan00


Change is on October 30th as compared to October 23rd 2009
Change is per tonne

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(Sourced fromwww.steelprices-china.com)

 

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