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CAPEX cuts - Mining industry freezes capital expenditure
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Tuesday, 04 Nov 2008
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The AustralianNews.com cited some analysts as saying that a USD 50 billion in planned expenditure is at risk of being delayed next year, as miners bunker down to survive the global financial turmoil. The last time the mining industry froze capital expenditure in 1998, it took five years for it to return with any confidence.

Mr Jeremy Gray metals and mining equity research analyst at Credit Suisse said that the China growth story was three years old before miners started raising capital to expand projects and build new mines. But with commodity prices plunging and the credit crisis drying up funding options, some mines would close, projects would be delayed and production targets cut, and it could take two years for miners to regain their confidence.

The Credit Suisse UK mining team has estimated that about USD 50 billion of the USD 75 billion of mining capital expenditure planned in 2009 could be delayed, and that a further USD 150 billion scheduled for 2010 to 12 could be delayed.

This represents about 66% of 2009 spending plans and may materially delay production of some 300 million tonnes of iron ore, 5 million tonnes of copper and 10 million tonnes of aluminum and more than 1 million ounces of platinum.

Industry experts have argued that many of the emerging iron ore projects in Western Australia, which have been bidding to grow at a frenzied rate to cash in on China's increasing need, may not eventuate.

Fortescue Metals Group, the main new player in the sector, announced this week it would delay its USD 2 billion expansion.

Mincor Resources announced this week that it would cut its nickel output for the financial year to conserve costs. It had originally planned to produce 19,500 to 20,500 tonnes of nickel but is now targeting 16,000 to 19,000 tonnes.

However, BHP has denied it needs to review operations or cut back on production to address the volatile climate. Instead it tells the market it is in a position to keep investing in the cycle and cash in on opportunities.

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