It is reported that China produced 3.45 million tonnes of coke in 2009, when coke apparent consumption proved to be 3.44 million tonnes.

Mr Li Xinchuang dean of China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicted that by 2015, China total demand for coke would remain at 3.82 million tonnes to3.9 million tonnes. He said that that means that China's coke demand will grow only by 13% in the coming five years. He added that China will still need to import coking coal in quantities then.

Mr Li said "Increasing in-furnace injection coal and thereby lower coke input will be a tendency in steel industry development in future. He said that China will need a total of 3.325 million tonnes of coke in 2015. Of the volume the iron smelting industry will require 2.56 million tonnes of coke. With chemical industry and machinery industry taken into account, China total coke demand will probably reach 3.82 million tonnes to 3.9 million tonnes in 2015.”

Mr Li also predicted that China coking coal output in 2015 will have reached 1.32 billion tonnes of which output of primary coking coal and fat coal will reach 410 million tonnes. With both the above projections added into the calculation, China needs 774 million tonnes to 789 million tonnes of dry raw coal in 2015, of which primary coking coal and fat coal demand will remain at 426 million tonnes to 434 million tonnes.

Mr Li Xinchuang expressed that China coking coal production can basically satisfy its demand. But China still lacks 20 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes of primary coking coal and fat coal due to pure coal quality. Therefore China still needs to import large amounts of coking coal in 2015.

(Sourced from China Securities Journal)