Fitch Ratings which raised Russia's outlook to positive this month said that it could upgrade the country back to its pre crisis rating in the next two years, but added that oil dependence was a key risk.

Fitch currently rates Russia BBB, which is in investment grade territory, but one notch lower than before the global financial crisis pushed the country into recession in 2008-09.

Mr Ed Parker head of emerging Europe in Fitch's Sovereigns team said that "If the positive trends, which have influenced the change of the outlook, persist, then there is a good chance of the Russian rating being raised in the next two years.”

He told that to earn the upgrade, Russia would need to tighten fiscal policy, reduce dependence on oil and push through major structural reforms.

Mr Parker said that "The biggest risk in Russia would be a significant, long-lasting fall in oil prices.”

Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov told that problem loans in the banking sector stopped growing in the third quarter of 2009, holding at about 25% of the portfolio.

Fitch predicts gross domestic product will grow 4.3% this year, then 4% in 2011 and 2012.

(Sourced from Reuters)