Interfax reported that an International Monetary Fund mission projects 6% growth for Kazakhstan in 2012.
The IMF said in Consultation Concluding Statement after holding discussions with the Kazakhs authorities in spring 2012 that "For 2012, IMF staff projects robust growth of 6% with a continued rebound of nonoil activity, and a modest pick-up of inflation from the current level to 6% to 7%."
Acording to the survey of the World Economic Outlook the IMF has already upgraded its forecast for Kazakhstan's 2012 growth from 5.6% to 5.9%.
The Kazakh government has estimated the 2012 economic growth at 6% and set the inflation band at 6% to 8%. Over the medium term, the IMF expects growth to converge to 6% to 6.5% and inflation to remain within the objective of 6-8%.
The IMF said "Favorable commodity prices underpin an auspicious economic outlook, albeit one subject to risks."
The main external risk, IMF experts said is a protracted global slowdown, in particular if it affects China and Russia. According to the statement "It could affect Kazakhstan through trade, finance, and investment channels. If these developments are combined with a decline in commodity prices, the adverse impact on Kazakhstan economy and its banking system will be even stronger."
The IMF said "Conversely, if world oil prices remain high, the economy will continue to benefit from positive spillovers."
The statement says "Overall, while Kazakhstan's strong net foreign asset position and its good track record of fiscal management are critical shock absorbers, healthier banks would be an essential complement to the existing buffers to protect the economy against possible deterioration in global conditions."
The IMF notes that economic performance continues to be strong led by high commodity prices. According to the statement "The rebound from the crisis in 2007-09 has been impressive, with real GDP growth reaching 7.5% in 2011. Notably, growth has become more broad-based, as high commodity prices helped spur activity in transport and communications and domestic demand.”
The IMF mission said "At the same time, slowing international food prices and a record high harvest, aided by administrative measures to limit price increases for fuel and staple food items, brought inflation below 5%. The external position strengthened further, with the current account surplus increasing to 7.75% of GDP, the highest level in recent history."
Besides, the IMF said, resources of the National Fund and National Bank of Kazakhstan international reserves provide an ample external buffer of USD 80.5 billion equivalent to 17 months of imports.
The IMF said the financial performance of the banking sectors is signaling possible recapitalization needs for some banks. It said "While banks' reported capital adequacy ratios are strong, accrued but not received interest income has continued to expand, raising doubts about recovery of restructured loans and signaling possible recapitalization needs for some banks."
Source - Interfax
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