Interfax quoted the Federal State Statistics Service as saying that Russian GDP grew an estimated 3.4%YoY in Q2 2011 as compared with 4.1% growth in Q1. This is below the Russian Economic Development Ministry preliminary forecast of 3.7% growth for Q2.

Rosstat did not said that what growth for the first half of 2011 was, but this was an estimated 3.8%, judging by the Q1 and Q2 figures. The Econ Ministry forecast 3.9% growth.

GDP growth slowed in Q2 partly because figures were high a year previously growth was only 3.5%YoY in Q1 2011 rising to 5.0% in Q2. The economy grew 3.1% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4 2010, and 4.0% in the year.

Mr Andrei Klepach deputy economic development minister said that in July GDP could grow 4.5% this year above the ministry's official forecast for 4.2% growth. He said that "In the second half, we expect an acceleration of GDP growth with increased investment and from the standpoint of demand. Secondly with growth in agriculture. In the third and fourth quarters of last year there was drop in agriculture and now there will be substantial growth in it."

Mr Klepach could not say whether the 4.2% growth forecast would be adjusted. He said that "I'm not prepared to say if we will get to 4.2% or a little higher or a little lower. There is a varying range of estimates from 4% to 4.5%. We will present an adjusted forecast at the end of August."

Mr Klepach was talking at a time when oil prices were higher and the Econ Ministry even expected Urals crude would average at more than the officially forecast USD 105 a barrel in 2011 but the drop in oil prices in recent days has exposed the fragility of such forecasts.

Analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast at the end of July that they thought GDP would grow 4.2% in 2011.

(Sourced from Interfax)