Interfax cited Mr Andrei Klepach Deputy Economic Development Minister of Russia as saying that Russian GDP will grow 3% to 4% in the Q4 of 2009 compared with the Q3.

Mr Klepach said "We expect strong [seasonally adjusted] growth in the Q4 from 3% to 4% compared to the Q3. He said that that result will put the GDP decline in 2009 at about 8.5%. Our forecast is for the contraction to total 8.5% but the possible range is 8.3% to 8.8%."

Mr Klepach said seasonally adjusted GDP has been rising MoM since June. Seasonally adjusted GDP in September was 0.5% higher than in August and Q3 GDP was 0.6% higher than in the Q2. However, GDP in September was 8.6% lower than in the same month last year.

He said that economic growth might pause in the beginning of 2010 but he doubts there will be a second wave of crisis. The GDP growth forecast for 2010 is 1.6% but there is a good probability growth will be about 2% or even higher.

Mr Klepach said if oil prices remain at current levels in 2011 to 2012, growth will be 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points higher than the current official forecast.

(Sourced from Interfax)