The total global outturn for crude stainless steel in 2010 has been provisionally reported at 30.685 million tonnes. This is 8.7% higher than the previous peak, in 2006. Worldwide production was 24.7% higher than in 2009, which was the low point of the recent recession.
Most traditional steel making countries are still producing at well below their highest recorded levels, whereas China has more than doubled its output in the last five years. Further, year on year, global growth of 8.1% is forecast for 2011, to give another record output of approaching 33.2 million tonnes.
European Union stainless steelmaking in the fourth quarter of 2010 is now estimated at 1.78 million tonnes. European output has been supported by production of manufactured goods for sale to emerging nations, especially China. Domestic construction, yellow goods, energy and offshore applications are beginning to recover. Growth for 2011 is predicted at 4.1% YoY.
The United States estimated annual total is now 2.2 million tonnes, an increase of 35% over 2009. Market players observe a slow pickup in demand with a pent up potential for capital projects, which are mostly being held up by constrained financial input. Expansion of approximately 6% is predicted for 2011 over the previous twelve months, to give total of more than 2.3 million tonnes.
The 2010 outturn for Japan was 3.27 million tonnes, which is still less than 84 percent of the 2006 all time high. The effects of the earthquake and tsunami will have a negative influence on production figures from March onward. However, reconstruction work will increase demand. We forecast a minimal advance in annual output for 2011.
South Korea recorded a strong second half of 2010 to give an estimated total outturn for the year of 2 million tonnes. Domestic producers may be able to utilize increased capacity and take advantage of lost production and increased demand from rebuilding work in Japan to consume a forecast output growth of 10% this year. This would equal the 2006 record of 2.2 million tonnes.
Taiwan's 2010 provisional annual output of 1.5 million tonnes is still only around 93% of the 2006 peak. The country's two major producers plan to move towards using their full capacity during 2011. We predict a 5% YoY increase, to give a total of approaching 1.6 million tonnes.
Chinese production achieved a full year total of approximately 11.3 million tonnes, which was more than double the figure recorded in 2006. Continued significant growth of nearly 14% is predicted for 2011, which will produce an annual outturn of 12.8 million tonnes.
(Sourced from MEPS - Stainless Steel Review)
