Roskill Information Services in a recent report titled 'Manganese: Global industry markets and outlook 2012 (12th Edition)', outlined that at the end of 2011 market conditions for manganese products were relatively weak with a large stockpile of ore at Chinese ports and poor demand for steel long products. Underlying these factors specific to manganese were low business confidence and economic uncertainty, particularly in Europe and the USA, arising in part from the Eurozone debt crisis.
It said “In the longer term, the direction of manganese prices will depend on a combination of economic growth in the industrialized world, and continued expansion of industrializing and emerging economies in Asia and South America. Recovery, particularly of the construction industries in Europe and North America, could lead to a firming of manganese ferroalloy prices in 2013 and beyond. This, coupled with continued infrastructural growth in China, India and elsewhere in Asia, should result in secure markets and rising prices for manganese. Expansion of Asian automobile industries will also stimulate manganese prices.”
It said “Overall, total demand for manganese is expected to increase by around 6% per year over the next five years. New capacity will enter the market to supply ever growing appetites”
It added “As demand for manganese continues rising, new supply will be required to enter the market to satisfy requirements. Some 10Mtpy (gross weight ore) of new manganese mining capacity is planned, mainly in South Africa where three mining projects with a total output of 6.3 million tonnes per annum of saleable ore or sinter are planned. The first on stream is likely to be the 2.4 million tonnes per annum Kalagadi project. About 2.3 million tonnes per annum of manganese ferroalloy (including Mn rich slag) projects were being planned in 2011. The largest of these was the 320,000 tonnes per annum Kalagadi installation, which is scheduled to start up in the second half of 2012 at Coega in the Eastern Cape of South Africa.”
It also said “In China the electrolytic manganese metal industry is being restructured which will result in fewer, larger operations. Some 30 EMM producers with capacities of more than 30,000 tonnes per annum are scheduled to be built from 2011 to 2015. Since 2004, some 450,000 tonnes per annum of small scale EMM capacity has been eliminated in an effort to modernize the industry.”
It said “Existing and projected manganese ferroalloy capacity in the main producing countries (China, India, South Africa, Ukraine and Norway) appears adequate in the medium term, but recurring power restrictions and industry restructuring in China could lead to further short term supply limitations. However, prices are on the whole expected to increase from 2011 levels, potentially rising by around 20% over the next five years.”
(Sourced from Roskill Information Services)
