It is anticipated that China was initially expected to increase the production of crude stainless steel in 2008 by 20% from that in 2007, but this expansion of the production will retreat to a considerable extent.
According to a forecast by analysts or Chinese experts, the output of crude stainless steel in 2008 will be still in the range of 7.80 to 8.20 million tonnes but a strong view at present is to converge upon more or less 8.00 million tonnes. For a reference, the production of stainless steel in China for 2007 was estimated to be 7.21 million tonnes to 7.35 million tonnes.
This slowdown of the growth on production of stainless steel in China has caused to change the demand for nickel from this country to a large extent. Jinchuan Group Limited has turned to increase their copper production in 2008 by means of restricting capacity for nickel production. Therefore, Jinchuan Group was initially scheduled to produce 120,000 tonnes per annum of nickel in 2008 but is now anticipated to decrease this nickel output by 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes.
It was already pointed out from summer of this year that Jinchuan Group decreases nickel production and it was recently known that they have converted from August of 2008 two furnaces used to refine nickel to produce more copper. By this arrangement, Jinchuan Group is expected to be able to increase their copper production by 35% to 300,000 tons per annum. However, their nickel production in 2008 will shrink to a scale of 100,000 to 110,000 tonnes per annum.
Accordingly, the output of nickel contained pig iron in 2008 was initially estimated to be 100,000 tonnes per annum of nickel but is now anticipated to decrease to 80,000 tonnes. However, China is supposed to have still held the excessive cargoes of nickel ore, which will come to 8,000,000 tons on material base and have been accumulated at wharves of discharging ports. The reduced nickel production as mentioned above has put the same impact on nickel producers in other districts of China.
Owing to the unexpectedly depressed production of stainless steel, the quantity of nickel to be consumed in China for 2008 is estimated to decrease by 17,000 tonnes to 345,000 tonnes. The quantities of nickel imported into China in January to July 2008 period were
1. Nickel metal – 74,000 tonnes
2. Nickel oxide – 42,000 tonnes
3. Ferronickel – 37,000 tonnes
The total quantity on nickel content base imported into China is unable to indicate with accurate figures but is supposed to be more than 110,000 tonnes at present and anticipated to reach a nearer level to 200,000 tonnes per annum.
China will produce 228,000 tonnes of nickel in 2008 as an increase of 6% from that in 2007 and the total quantity of nickel to be supplied to China in 2008, by adding that imported into China in the year, will be inevitable to come to 428,000 tonnes, exceeding a scale of 400,000 tonnes per annum.
