Indonesian Coal Exports to Surge in Q3 of 2021
As per the IHS Markit's Commodities, Indonesian coal shipments during June 2021 stood at 35.3 million tonnes, up 25% YoY. In terms of regions, shipments from East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and Sumatra stood at 18.9 million tonnes up 9% YoY, 11.0 million tonnes up 56% YoY and 3.7 million tonnes up 61% YoY respectively. Indonesian coal shipments during June 2021, to Mainland China, which accounts for 53% of total Indonesian coal export, stood at 18.6 million tonnes up 15 p% MoM & 70% YoY. While shipments to India stood at 4.5 million tonnes down 25 % MoM & 14% YoY. Shipments to South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and Taiwan stood at 1.5 million tonnes up 20% MoM but still down 13% YoY, 1.1 million tonnes down 21 % MoM & 39 % YoY, 2.2 million tonnes up 22% MoM & 31% YoY and 1.9 million tonnes down 13% MoM & 7% YoY, respectively.
Renewed COVID-19 outbreaks are slowing the economic recovery in the country and putting pressure on fiscal shortfalls. However, there is an increase in taxes from coal exports due to an increase in international demand in addition to the surge in coal prices. As per the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia, the monthly benchmark coal price HBA basis, 6300 GAR surged further in July 2021 and announced at USD 115.35, up 15% MoM and 121% YoY. HBA prices after bottoming out in September 2020 have been on an upward trajectory driven by strong demand from China (Mainland) and lately from Japan and South Korea.
For 3Q21 and full 2021, Indonesian coal exports are forecast at 109 million tonnes up 33 percent y/y) and 414 million tonnes up 10 percent y/y), respectively. In terms of imports countries during 3Q21 and 2021, shipments to Mainland China, India, South Korea, and Japan are forecast at 50.9 million tonne/174 million tonnes, 14.5 million tonnes /77 million tonnes, 6.6 million tonnes /22 million tonnes and 7 million tonnes /25 million tonnes, respectively.