COVID-19, even though volumes will remain below pre-pandemic levels. According to Indonesia Coal Mining Association estimates, exports are expected to hit 430 million tonnes in 2021, growing 3.6 percent from this year, but still 8.9 percent below last year’s figure. However, most of next year’s growth is likely to come in the July-December period, as countries focus on the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the January-June period. APBI deputy chairman Mr Kurnia Ariawan said “We think the first half of 2021 will still be highly impacted by the pandemic. The second half is when we will see real recovery.”
The COVID-19 pandemic has destroyed global energy demand over the past year. Demand fell so much that the Indonesian benchmark coal price dropped to a five-year low of USD 49.42 per tonne in September. For comparison, prices averaged around USD 77.89 per tonne last year. Demand has recovered in the fourth quarter as some economies have reopened, which boosted the HBA to USD 51 per tonne in October, but experts say prices are unlikely to reach 2019 levels even in 2021.