SEAISI Steel Mega Event & Expo, an in-person conference and exhibition was held from 14-18 November 2022, during which two distinguished keynote speakers Worldsteel Association’s Director General Dr Edwin Basson and McKinsey’s Senior Partner Dr Karel Eloot provided insights into what is coming and what the industry should do next.

Four megatrends accelerated after the pandemic

1. Climate Change - Super megatrend influencing all sectors

2. Technological Progress – Address issues such as carbon neutrality, wealth inequality and spreading of disease

3. Socioeconomic Changes – Demographic shifts such as aging population, bigger role of new generation and shifting of individual behaviours

4. Geopolitics – Hegemonic competition to multi-polar world order and energy-tech divide.

With the megatrends triggering an enormous change to the industry, how will the landscape change and the challenges will the steel industry face for the next 30 years

1. Climate change, which will affect all sectors such as economy, society, politics and technology

2. Geopolitical rebalancing impacting supply chain, carbon pricing (and cross border measures) and global trade structure and regional trade

3. On steelmaking technologies, it is necessary for global steel production to meet both market needs and carbon reduction targets. The 3 routes of steelmaking process to achieve carbon neutrality are:

BF-BOF to Scrap EAF (challenges are quality inputs and ability to achieve higher quality steel)

BF BOF to Hydrogen DR EAF (challenges are availability of DR pellets and hydrogen)

BF-BOF to BF-BOF & CCUS (with commercial feasibility of CCUS a major challenge)

Urban development continues to be a critical area for the steel industry. There are four types of city archetypes, with differentiated changes in construction, mobility and energy landscape. Steel use pattern differ by cities. In developed / high income cities, steel use is expected to be flat in the future, unlike more prominent growth in developing cities. Dr. Basson foresees that steel demand for construction will continue to grow with its eco-friendliness and easy composition with other materials.

Advanced Metropolises (high income, high density) – e.g., New York, London, Paris, Hong Kong

Prosperous Low-Density Cities (high income, low density) – e.g., SF, Amsterdam, Brussels, Bonn

Expanding Monocentric Cities (low income, high density) – e.g., Beijing, Bangkok, Mumbai, Istanbul

Developing Scattered Cities (low income, low density) – e.g., Johannesburg, Manila, Rio de Janeiro

Despite strong competition for light-weight materials, steel maintains its strong advantage with its clean process, recyclability and economic features.

For steel businesses to thrive under rapidly changing urban area and mobility landscape, there is need to consider the megatrends while being able to understand the needs from the demand side, the necessary technologies for the future and understanding of how the value chain/ecosystem evolve.

There is a future for the sustainable and resilient steelmaker, one that is eco-friendly and is a digital producer of smart, green and customised solutions.

The Future Trends in ASEAN Steel Market

Dr Karel Eloot forecasted that global demand for low carbon steel to increase exponentially by 2040:

Global low carbon flat steel demand to grow at more than 15x in the next decade

Low carbon flat steel demand to represent 15% of total flat steel demand in 2030

Demand to accelerate to 20% of total in 2040

Thailand Plans Mega Smart City in Chonburi Province

Related Stories