WBMS announced that the calculated market balance for primary aluminium for the period of January to November 2021 was a deficit of 1477 KT which follows a surplus of 1272 KT recorded for the whole of 2020. Demand for primary aluminium for January to November 2021 was 63.25 million tonnes, 4648 KT more than in the comparable period in 2020. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and national lockdowns may have distorted the trade statistics. Production in January to November 2021 rose by 3.7 per cent.

Total reported stocks fell in November to close at the end of the period 1483 KT below the December 2020 level. Total LME stocks (Including off warrant stocks) were 1341.2 KT at the end of November 2021 which compares with 2917.0 KT at the end of 2020. Shanghai stocks increased in November and ended the period 103 KT above the December 2020 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production of primary aluminium rose in January to November 2021 by 3.7 per cent compared with the first eleven months of 2020. Chinese output was estimated at 35446 KT despite lower availability of imported feedstocks in the first eleven months of the year and this currently accounts for about 57 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 5.9 per cent higher than in January November 2020 and the output of semi-manufactures rose by 6.8 per cent compared with the production for the same months of 2020. China became a net importer of unwrought aluminium in 2020. During January to November 2021 Chinese net exports of aluminium semi manufactures were 4415 KT which compares with 3876 KT for January to November 2020. Exports of semi manufactures rose by 14 per cent compared with the January to November 2020 total

Japanese demand was up by 303 KT and US demand increased by 181 KT. Global demand rose by 7.9 per cent during January to November 2021 compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

November metal balances for primary aluminium recorded production at 5499.6 KKT and demand at 5698.5 KT.

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Strategic Research Institute

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