Paris based autonomous intergovernmental organisation International Energy Agency has kept its forecast for global oil demand this year unchanged at a level above its estimate of current supplies, with risks to its forecast likely to the downside, there is unlikely to be an acute deficit. But it cautioned that increasing seasonal demand throughout the northern hemisphere summer could lead to strain, if refiners cannot keep pace. Reduced exports of Russian products and limited spare refining capacity have aggravated tightness in products marketsIEA predicts global demand at 99.4 million b/d this year, the same forecast it gave in its previous report, for year-on-year growth of 1.8 million b/d. Most of the comparative growth has already happened, with the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in many countries allowing for greater consumption of road and jet fuels in the first quarter of the year. High prices and slowing economic growth will weigh on demand in the fourth quarterIEA also warned that this could be exacerbated by lengthy pandemic lockdowns in China and growing international restrictions on Russia. IEA said "A large part of the demand response to high prices will come in the form of curtailed personal mobility and business activity. This will trim transport fuel demand as the year goes on."Global oil supplies fell by 710,000 b/d to 98.1 million b/d in April, when Russia shut in nearly 1mn b/d of mostly crude. The IEA expects a further 600,000 b/d drop in Russian output this month, with the decline potentially exceeding 2mn b/d in June and above 3mn b/d from July onwards, which would take the country's annual production to its lowest since 2004.Excluding Russia, the agency forecasts supply to grow by 5.2 million b/d this year, with steady growth from Middles East Opec producers and the US. Opec+ production fell by 1.03 million b/d last month to 43.12 million b/d.