Synopsis

The World Steel Association has released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2023 and 2024. The forecast predicts a 1.8% growth in steel demand for 2023, following a 3.3% contraction in 2022, with a further 1.9% increase in 2024. The outlook, influenced by high inflation and interest rates, highlights the complex challenges facing steel industries globally, with differing impacts on advanced and emerging economies, while emphasizing the importance of infrastructure investment and decarbonization efforts.

Article:

In the rapidly evolving world of steel production, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) has unveiled its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for the years 2023 and 2024, shedding light on the intricate dynamics that shape the steel industry's future.

The forecast for 2023 projects a notable 1.8% growth in steel demand, a welcome rebound following a challenging year in 2022 when demand contracted by 3.3%. Looking further ahead, the outlook for 2024 is optimistic, with an anticipated increase of 1.9% in steel demand, bringing the global demand to 1,849.1 million metric tons.

Mr. Máximo Vedoya, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee, acknowledged the industry's response to the impact of high inflation and interest rates. Since the latter half of 2022, steel-using sectors have seen a significant slowdown in both investment and consumption. This trend has been evident across multiple sectors and regions, particularly in the European Union (EU) and the United States (US). The tightening monetary policy has led to a reduced appetite for steel products.

The recovery in steel demand in advanced economies is expected to be slow, with emerging economies showing greater resilience, particularly in emerging Asia. China, undergoing economic transitions, introduces an element of uncertainty to the global steel market. Additionally, regional conflicts and unrest in places like Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and Palestine could contribute to rising oil prices and economic fragmentation, posing further risks.

Despite challenges such as high-interest rates affecting the construction sector, there is positive momentum in infrastructure investment, even in advanced economies. The global supply chain bottlenecks, though easing, continue to impact manufacturing sectors, with consumer durables being particularly vulnerable.

The automotive sector, on the other hand, anticipates recovery in 2023, thanks to order backlogs and an improved supply chain situation. However, the sector's growth is likely to decelerate in 2024.

The property market in China has faced challenges that spilled into 2023, impacting the economy and steel demand. Despite this, infrastructure investments have maintained growth momentum in China, supported by government initiatives.

Despite the uncertainties, the global steel demand for 2023 is expected to see 2.0% growth, driven by infrastructure investments and stabilization in the property sector. The outlook for 2024 remains uncertain and heavily dependent on additional government support measures, as the real estate market and exports could exert negative pressure on steel demand.

Developed economies are expected to experience a 1.8% contraction in steel demand for 2023, following a steep decline of 6.4% in 2022. In 2024, there is optimism for a technical rebound, with steel demand projected to grow by 2.8%.

The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom have grappled with high energy costs and monetary tightening, impacting manufacturing activities. The automotive sector is on a path of recovery, but the residential construction sector faces challenges due to high interest rates, material costs, and labor shortages. Infrastructure investment, however, remains stable.

The United States, despite its resilience to interest rate hikes, faces challenges in steel-using sectors, particularly residential construction. Nevertheless, the commercial building sector and infrastructure development are showing resilience. A rebound in real demand is not expected for 2024, but technical rebound could bolster steel demand.

Japan, constrained by labor shortages and rising costs, anticipates moderate growth in construction activities, especially in automotive production. Steel demand is expected to decrease by 2.0% in 2023 but grow by 0.6% in 2024.

South Korea, recovering from flood damages and experiencing moderate growth in construction, will witness a 3.3% growth in steel demand for 2023 and 1.1% in 2024.

In emerging and developing economies outside China, steel demand dynamics diverge, with developing Asia showing resilience. Steel demand in these economies is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024.

India continues its high growth momentum in steel demand, driven by government infrastructure spending and a rebound in private investment. In 2024, with festive season spending and progress in Production Linked Investment (PLI) Schemes, India's steel demand is set to improve.

The ASEAN region faces inflation and deteriorating external conditions, impacting exports and manufacturing. Still, domestic demand and infrastructure investments drive steel demand growth.

Other European regions, particularly Turkey, are expected to see a surge in steel demand, influenced by construction activities and changes in monetary policies.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region experiences a mixed scenario, with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and North Africa witnessing steel demand contractions, but a rebound is expected in 2024, thanks to mega projects and housing demand. Egypt's steel demand faces challenges but is expected to improve slightly in 2024.

Despite challenges, Russia and Ukraine show signs of stabilizing and improving in the steel sector. The steel use situation in Ukraine has shown an upward trend since March 2023, amid construction of housing for internally displaced persons and development of new logistics routes.

Latin America, affected by interest rate hikes and inflation, is showing contraction in several countries, with marginal growth in construction. However, there is considerable economic and political uncertainty in the region.

Steel demand in Latin America is expected to increase by 1.4% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024 after falling by 8.3% in 2022.

Brazil faces steel demand contraction in 2023 but is expected to recover moderately in 2024 due to government investment in infrastructure. Mexico's economy is supported by consumer sentiments and nearshoring activities, while the auto sector is showing positive growth.

In a global landscape of shifting economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties, the steel industry remains a resilient and dynamic force, adapting to the ever-evolving challenges and opportunities.

Conclusion

The worldsteel Short Range Outlook for 2023 and 2024 offers an insightful glimpse into the steel industry's future. After a challenging 2022, global steel demand is set to grow by 1.8% in 2023 and an additional 1.9% in 2024. However, this growth is not uniform; developed economies face a slow recovery, while emerging economies, especially in Asia, exhibit resilience. Key factors influencing the industry include high inflation, interest rates, and regional conflicts, which have repercussions on steel demand. Infrastructure investments play a crucial role in sustaining growth, even in the face of supply chain bottlenecks.

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