Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's crude steel production fell for a third straight month in August 2021, hitting the lowest monthly rate since March 2020, as governments maintained curbs on production to reduce carbon emissions. China produced 83.24 million tonnes of crude steel in August 2021, down 4.1% from July 2021 and well below 94.85 million tonnes in August 2020. However, China produced 733.02 million tonnes of crude steel in January-August 2021, up 5.3% YoY from the January-August period in 2020 down from about 10% YoY in first half of 2021Therefore, if the Chinese government’s goal to cap crude steel output at 2020 level of 1065 million tonne is to be achieved, monthly average rate of about 83 million tonne is required to be maintained in the balance four months of 2021. But if London based climate analytics firm TransitionZero’s recent assessment of 4-7% YoY increase in China’s crude steel production in 2021 is to be believed, China’s crude steel production in remaining 4 months would average pretty high figure of 94-102 million tonnes per month, which seems quite unlikelyChina Crude Steel Production2020 – 1065 million tonnesTransitionZero’s 2021 Estimate – 1108-1140 million tonneChina’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has pledged in January 2021 that it would keep its steel production in 2021 to below 2020 levels
Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's crude steel production fell for a third straight month in August 2021, hitting the lowest monthly rate since March 2020, as governments maintained curbs on production to reduce carbon emissions. China produced 83.24 million tonnes of crude steel in August 2021, down 4.1% from July 2021 and well below 94.85 million tonnes in August 2020. However, China produced 733.02 million tonnes of crude steel in January-August 2021, up 5.3% YoY from the January-August period in 2020 down from about 10% YoY in first half of 2021Therefore, if the Chinese government’s goal to cap crude steel output at 2020 level of 1065 million tonne is to be achieved, monthly average rate of about 83 million tonne is required to be maintained in the balance four months of 2021. But if London based climate analytics firm TransitionZero’s recent assessment of 4-7% YoY increase in China’s crude steel production in 2021 is to be believed, China’s crude steel production in remaining 4 months would average pretty high figure of 94-102 million tonnes per month, which seems quite unlikelyChina Crude Steel Production2020 – 1065 million tonnesTransitionZero’s 2021 Estimate – 1108-1140 million tonneChina’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has pledged in January 2021 that it would keep its steel production in 2021 to below 2020 levels