Indian Steel Export & Import to Be Subdued in Q4 of 2020-21
India Ratings and Research in its latest digest on India’s steel sector opined that Indian steel exports to remain low over the balance 4QFY21, due to a continued strong domestic demand and robust realisations and there is unlikely to be any spurt in imports due to domestic prices in India being at a discount to Chinese prices and China having limited steel surplus.
India’s crude steel output in January 2021 was high at around 10 million tonnes, around 2% MoM and 7% YoY higher. The production of finished steel in January 2021 was 1.8% MoM and 4.1% YoY higher. The production is likely to remain on par in the coming months.
India’s finished steel consumption in January 2021 stood at 9.97 million tonnes, up 3% MoM and 9% YoY, due to a robust demand and double-digit sales growth in auto, white and consumer durable goods that has led to the increased consumption. During April 2020-January 2021, the consumption was at 74.58 million tonnes down 13% YoY on account of the COVID-19 led disruptions over 1QFY21. The consumption is likely to remain strong in the near term, on back of a strong demand from the user industry.
India's finished steel exports in January 2021 were at 0.58 million tonnes, down 6% MoM and 16% YoY. However, India’s export volumes were at 8.84 million tonnes, up 23% YoY due to during the lockdown in India. Conversely, India’s finished steel imports were around 2% MoM and 8.3% YoY higher at 0.52 million tonnes in January 2021. India's finished steel imports over April 2020-January 2021 were at 3.79 million tonnes, 37% lower YOY due to the COVID-19 disruptions.