The World Steel Association in its latest Short Range Outlook for 2022 and 2023 said that steel demand in China has contracted by 6.6% YoY in the first eight months of 2022/. It said “The recovery of Chinese steel demand in late 2021 reversed in the second quarter of 2022 as repeated COVID lockdowns led to a drastic cooling of the Chinese economy. The slump in the property market has deepened, with investment in real estate slowing to its worst in 30 years. All major real estate market indicators are in negative territory, with floor space under construction contracting for the first time in its modern history. Despite the government’s efforts to boost the real estate market, a major turnaround is not expected since buyers’ confidence remains weak due to strict COVID measures and developer bankruptcies. Infrastructure investment is recovering owing to government measures, and will provide some support to steel demand in late 2022 and 2023. However, as long as the real estate sector remains depressed, it will be difficult for steel demand to rebound significantly.” Worldsteel forecast that “For the whole year, steel demand is likely to fall by 4.0% with the low base effect of the second half of 2022. In 2023, new infrastructure projects and a mild recovery in the real estate market could prevent further contraction of steel demand. Steel demand in 2023 is expected to remain flat under the assumption that small new stimulus measures are to be introduced and lockdown measures will be largely removed in the later part of 2022. Significant downside risks exist if these assumptions are not met. The slowing global economy poses further downside risk for China.”
The World Steel Association in its latest Short Range Outlook for 2022 and 2023 said that steel demand in China has contracted by 6.6% YoY in the first eight months of 2022/. It said “The recovery of Chinese steel demand in late 2021 reversed in the second quarter of 2022 as repeated COVID lockdowns led to a drastic cooling of the Chinese economy. The slump in the property market has deepened, with investment in real estate slowing to its worst in 30 years. All major real estate market indicators are in negative territory, with floor space under construction contracting for the first time in its modern history. Despite the government’s efforts to boost the real estate market, a major turnaround is not expected since buyers’ confidence remains weak due to strict COVID measures and developer bankruptcies. Infrastructure investment is recovering owing to government measures, and will provide some support to steel demand in late 2022 and 2023. However, as long as the real estate sector remains depressed, it will be difficult for steel demand to rebound significantly.” Worldsteel forecast that “For the whole year, steel demand is likely to fall by 4.0% with the low base effect of the second half of 2022. In 2023, new infrastructure projects and a mild recovery in the real estate market could prevent further contraction of steel demand. Steel demand in 2023 is expected to remain flat under the assumption that small new stimulus measures are to be introduced and lockdown measures will be largely removed in the later part of 2022. Significant downside risks exist if these assumptions are not met. The slowing global economy poses further downside risk for China.”
